The conclusion of former President Donald Trump’s Senate impeachment hearings have resulted in the acquittal of charges against his alleged incitement of the Capitol riot on 6th January.

Trump was faced with a single charge of inciting the destructive Capitol riot on 6th January, after Democrats, and some on the Republican side of the debate, perceived his rallying cry of “fight like hell” as a direct influencer in his supporters’ violent attack on the very foundations of US democracy.

Whilst Donald Trump faced 57 guilty votes in the Senate to 43 not guilty, the most bipartisan impeachment vote for a presidency, the constitutional system in the US, with its structural framework of checks and balances, means that a two-thirds majority in the Senate would have been required to impeach Trump and prevent him from ever running for office again.

The result of this hearing therefore means that Trump is able to run for office in 2024 if he so desires and no further vote can be held to prevent this.

“such a conviction was never going to be easy.”

With unfounded allegations of voter fraud in the 2020 election being called on for months on end by Donald Trump and his campaign team, the view of those Democrats who launched the proceedings was that Trump had unleashed an uncontrollable sense of frustration in his voters, who felt the election had been stolen from them and this came to the fore in the destructive scenes of instability in the US Capitol last month. As such, the Democrats felt they had been left with the unavoidable, but equally regrettable, decision to attempt to convict a former US President for the second time, attempting to heal a ruthlessly divided nation that had become consumed by partisan allegiances.

Yet, such a conviction was never going to be easy. Whilst polling indicates that the majority of Americans consider Trump to be at least partially responsible for the Capitol riots last month, die-hard Trump supporters still constituted a sizeable chunk of the electorate in 2020.

It is those supporters that many Republicans have been consciously aware of throughout these impeachment debates as they consider their own electoral chances in the upcoming midterms as much as, if not more than, any moral persuasions. If Republicans had overwhelmingly sided with the Democrats to convict Trump, a large swathe of support would be lost from a base that the GOP had fought hard to get. From blue collar workers to Hispanics, Trump’s radicalism had attracted favouritism from a demographic of voters that Republicans had previously failed to reach and the party felt this would be lost if it were to side with the opposition in these impeachment proceedings.

This was also a party issue as much as it was a legal one. US politics has always been extremely partisan and an insurrection on the US Capitol was never going to stop that. Many Republicans are still deeply bitter about their election loss last year and therefore party loyalties remain strong. In siding with the Democrats, they believe it would send out the wrong signal to the American public, indicating that they were willing to sacrifice one of their own – a man who had powerfully led their party and shaped its direction for the past four years; many were simply unprepared to take this risk.

“this was a political statement more than anything else – a signal to the American people”

Equally, free speech was considered a fundamental part in their decision making. Whilst Trump may have directed violent language towards his supporters at his ‘save America march’, many Republicans have argued that he was fundamentally within his first amendment rights of free speech to do this and that any attempt to block such a core constitutional right would be a gross act of misconduct on the part of the legislative branch.

The Democrats had tried once before and failed to convict Trump, so why did they place all this time and energy in rushing through an impeachment hearing whilst the US remains in the centre of a social and economic crisis? Worthless, some may argue.

Yet, this was a political statement more than anything else – a signal to the American people that the Democrats were unwilling to stand by and see democracy threatened in such a way without taking every attempt to put a stop to the raucous behaviour erupting in Washington. Many knew that a conviction was highly unlikely given the stakes but they felt they could no longer sit by and allow such behaviour to simply be tolerated.

The blame and shame game has also been central to the Democrats’ approach. Whilst Donald Trump may have got away scot-free, the Democrats now have the weapon of political shame to launch on those Republicans who refused to convict the former President. Their approach is therefore to paint the Republicans as enemies of the people, attempting to destroy the democratic elements that the country so proudly stands for.

The GOP politicians in the Senate and House who sided with Trump during the impeachment trial hope that their loyalties will soon pay off as Trumpites come flocking back to support them in years to come. Yet, with the general public consensus sliding against Trump, such a decision could equally bite them in the backs.

On hearing the news of his acquittal, a triumphant Trump thanked his legal team for taking every effort to uphold justice and defend the truth as he saw it. He also praised the Republicans who sided with him on the debate, glorifying them for standing up to the constitutional rights and “sacred legal principles” that he consistently advocates for.

“Donald Trump’s worries as far from over.”

In response, Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has attacked those Republicans who sided with Trump, describing them as ‘cowards’, whilst Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer has argued that the GOP Senators sided with Trump over the interests of the nation.

As CNN Correspondent John King rightly points out, 10 House Republicans and seven Senate Republicans may have sided with the Democrats to place a guilty charge on the former president, but the GOP (Republican party) still remains the party of Trump. Whilst Trump may no longer be in office, he still retains an enormous amount of influence on the party and their policy decisions, both now and likely for many more years to come.

Yet, Donald Trump’s worries are far from over. He still faces a criminal investigation over potential election interference, following his call with Georgia’s secretary of state on 2nd January in relation to his electoral disputes about the counting of Fulton county. In addition, Trump faces multiple New York investigations examining potential tax fraud related to his organisation, as well as other prosecutors continuing to question his links with Russia. Given that Trump is no longer a sitting President, he is no longer immune from many of the legal protections and assurances he had during his presidency and, as such, convictions will be easier to come about.

“his powerful influence still looms over the party”

Only time will tell how well Trump is able to weather this storm. What this recent impeachment result does display, however, is that the GOP’s allegiance is largely still on the side of Trump.

He may have lost his seat in office, but his powerful influence still looms over the party, dictating the political path they take going forwards.

Lauren McGaun

Featured image courtesy of Gage Skidmore on Flickr. Image license found here. No changes were made to this image.

Lauren is a freelance journalist at BBC Politics. She helped set up EJ as Co-Founder and used to be Editor in Chief for over a year. Most evenings you will find her sipping Aperol Spritz whilst watching the news or a documentary.

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