An image of a sign saying 'polling station' in the UK.

Katie Nelmes

On Thursday 20th July, UK by-elections took place in Somerton and Frome, Selby and Ainsty, and Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

What are by-elections?

In the UK, by-elections take place in a constituency when an MP’s seat has become vacant. This could be because an MP has resigned, passed away, has been declared bankrupt, taken a seat in the House of Lords, or been convicted of a criminal offence.

What were the by-election results?

Somerton and Frome: Liberal Democrat Win

The constituency of Somerton and Frome in South-West England had been held by Conservative MP David Warburton since 2015. Warburton stepped down as MP in June following allegations of sexual assault and drug use.

Liberal Democrat candidate Sarah Dyke won the seat with over 21,000 votes, giving her a majority of 11,008. The Liberal Democrats gained a 29 per cent swing, while the Conservative Party had their lowest-ever vote share in Somerton and Frome.

 

Selby and Ainsty: Labour Win

This North Yorkshire seat was previously held by Conservative MP and ally of Boris Johnson, Nigel Adams, since 2010.

Adams resigned from his seat following the release of Johnson’s controversial resignation honours list. Some of Johnson’s key supporters — including Nigel Adams, Nadine Dorries, and Sir Alok Sharma — were absent from the list.

Labour managed to overturn the 20,000 Conservative majority in this constituency. Labour candidate Keir Mather will become the youngest MP in the House of Commons. Mather has been dubbed the ‘baby of the House’ by much of the media and fellow MPs.

Mather has already attracted criticism from veterans minister Johnny Mercer. In an interview with Sky News, Mercer compared Mather to TV comedy The Inbetweeners (2008-2010). “This guy has been at Oxford University more than he’s been in a job,” he said of Mather.

Regardless of his age, Keir Mather’s election marks a historic win for Labour as the largest-ever majority overturned at a by-election.

Uxbridge and South Ruislip: Conservatives Retained

As the seat of former Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Uxbridge and South Ruislip was the most anticipated of the by-elections results. Johnson resigned after he obtained an advanced copy of a report by the Privileges Committee, which found that he had misled the House of Commons regarding Partygate.

While Labour hoped to win the constituency, the seat was very narrowly held by Conservative candidate Steve Tuckwell. The Conservatives won a majority of only 495 in this constituency. Tuckwell received 13,965 votes, while the Labour candidate had 13,470 votes.

With the Conservative Party consistently polling behind Labour in recent months, how did the Conservatives manage to retain Uxbridge and South Ruislip?

What is ULEZ?

Much of the blame has been attributed to the expansion of London’s Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ), an attempt to control air pollution in London. Vehicles that do not meet the required emissions standards and aren’t exempt need to pay a £12.50 daily charge to drive within the zone.

ULEZ was originally introduced by Boris Johnson as Mayor of London in 2014, but the scheme has been expanded by the current Mayor, Sadiq Khan. Following an expansion in October 2021, ULEZ is set to extend across the entire capital from August 29th.

This scheme is controversial among voters.

The number of older, polluting vehicles entering the ULEZ has fallen by 97 per cent. This decreased levels of nitrogen oxide by 26 per cent and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) by 19 per cent since 2019. However, voters are concerned about the financial impact of the scheme on London residents, especially amidst the cost-of-living crisis.

Labour and Conservative officials agree that ULEZ was a defining issue at this by-election. Despite this, Sadiq Khan remains committed to ULEZ expansion.

The implication of the by-election results for the General Election

Polls have consistently suggested that the 2024 General Election will be a victory for Labour. However, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak said that the Conservative win in Uxbridge shows that next year’s election is not a “done deal.”

With a mixed bag of by-election results, the outcome of the 2024 General Election remains uncertain.

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Featured image courtesy of Red Dot via Unsplash. No changes were made to this image. Image license found here.

Katie is a final year Politics university student and an aspiring political journalist, currently working as a Twitter Editor for Empoword Journalism!

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